We’re just past the halfway point of 2025, and while the year started with optimism, that early momentum hasn’t quite carried through in the way we’d hoped. There were some green shoots in January that suggested we might be heading into a more positive business environment, but in reality, activity levels have been patchy. Right now, general sentiment across the market feels split; some are cautiously optimistic, while others are simply treading water.
It’s a complex and multi-layered economic backdrop. The US tariff changes have been a genuine shock to the system, requiring some swift adjustments. On top of that, global instability and unrest continue to create uncertainty, the NZ dollar remains low, and we’re still grappling with a chronically poor productivity rate. Locally, government spending cuts are starting to bite, while in contrast, the rural sector is holding strong and dairy prices are the best they’ve been in a long time. We’re also seeing the beginnings of recovery in the tech sector. When you combine all these factors, it’s no surprise that the environment in which businesses operate feels both challenging and unpredictable.
To summarise – the keyword is (still!) “uncertainty”. We are seeing a clear difference in sentiment when compared to this time last year, when many of our clients were finding it very challenging and having to make some tough business decisions. In contrast, we see many of those same clients have now turned a corner and are ready to pull the trigger on growth initiatives, but are also waiting for the clouds of uncertainty that we have seen develop over the last 6 months to clear.
In the candidate market, we’ve seen application volumes reach record highs across most areas. But volume doesn’t mean quality. In fact, the percentage of applicants who are genuinely suitable for the roles they apply for is as low as we’ve ever seen. Less than 20% of our current roles are being filled through advertising. The vast majority are secured through the strength of our networks, headhunting, referrals, database insights, and market mapping. That’s what it takes to get the kind of talent our clients actually want to hire. The impact of this is twofold for companies that rely solely on advertising. Firstly, if they are using advertising alone, then by our research, there is an 80% or greater chance that there was a better candidate out there if they could search the market. Secondly, the biggest challenge in this market is not attracting enough candidates – it is selecting the one who is best suited to the role – and this is the true value of using an expert who is highly trained.
On the other side of the ledger, candidates are open to opportunities but are being more selective than ever. People are weighing up roles carefully, they want to know about leadership, culture, flexibility, and long-term stability before making a move. We’ve also seen a real recovery in the contracting market, with a noticeable increase in demand for temporary and contract support, particularly in accounting, transformation, systems, and project work.
On the client side, many businesses are still deep in restructure and cost-out mode. When vacancies do arise, decision-making is slow, and every hire is being critically assessed. Is the role still needed, or can it be absorbed elsewhere? Leadership structures are being streamlined too. We’re seeing CFO and COO roles merge, and sales and marketing leadership often being combined into one role where previously it might have been two.
All that said, it’s best described as a lumpy market. We’ve had bursts of strong activity, but they’re often followed by quieter periods. The ups and downs have become the norm, unpredictable, but not without opportunity. I’m still optimistic about the direction we’re heading in. It’s just not a brisk walk to recovery, more of a steady meander. It’s a time to stay pragmatic and resolute.
As we head into spring, the calendar ramps up with events and networking always a productive time of year for us. Here at Hunter Campbell, we’re continuing to perform well. Our team remains stable, we’ve had no reductions in headcount, and we’ve continued to invest in our brand, marketing and the work we do beyond recruitment. Adding value to the communities we serve remains a priority through professional networking, learning and development, market insights, and our strategic partnerships.
We’re looking forward to launching our Future CFO programme next week, and we’ve reintroduced Future Finance Leaders. Our second Mood of the CFO report will be released in September. We’re also continuing to strengthen our partnership with Indicator through the Mood of the Sales Leader series, we’ve launched a new HR networking group, and our work with CIPS continues to grow.
All in all we are feeling optimistic about the remainder of the year. There are some serious doubts over just when the true recovery will kick in but the signs are a lot more promising than a year ago. The companies that are best set to capitalise on the economic uptick are those with the best people – it really is that simple. We take enormous pride in having the leading teams in our disciplines in recruitment. If you are looking for a new role get in touch with us to talk about where the best opportunities are. If you are an employer – get in touch with us to hunt out the best candidate to ensure you have the best team in your market.
There’s plenty happening and plenty still to come. Thanks again for your continued support.
